Geopolitical/Geoeconomic Change And Cold Fusion

In April, NASA scientist Dennis Bushnell postulated that the advent of LENR would, among other things, change geopolitics and geoeconomics.  This article explores the background in which these changes are to occur and some of the implications of said changes.  This article was written by Sojourner Soo. 

Please feel free to comment but please make all arguments for or against respectful, logical and rational.  E-catsite does not necessarily endorse or oppose the views expressed but believes them to be worthy of conversation and consideration.

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The world capitalist system is currently undergoing a radical shifting of economic power, from what Immanuel Wallerstein calls the “core” states (USA, Germany, Italy, France, Japan, the UK, and, to a lesser extent, Canada) to the formerly “peripheral” and “semi-peripheral” states, the so-called “emerging, or BRIC, states (Brazil, Russia, India and China). The emergence of the Rossi E-Cat, provided it proves to be real, will contribute to this transition in ways both known and unknown.

This far-reaching shift in the centers of economic power is often described as part and parcel of the effect known as the Kondratieff (or Kondratiev) long wave, or K-Wave, an economic business cycle which occurs at the global level. Sinusoidal in nature, the Kondratieff wave is often divided into four ‘seasons’, namely, the Kondratieff Spring (improvement as new technology is deployed), the Summer (acceleration or prosperity, as innovation proceeds and employment and income levels increase) of the ascendant period, Fall (recession or plateau, as old technologies reach their useful limits and the capitalist system reaches the limits of growth), and Winter (acceleration or depression, as the global economy collapses) of the downward period, the trough of the K-Wave.

The world capitalist system is now in an accelerated downward phase and quickly headed toward the coldest phase, economically speaking, of the Kondratieff Winter, a protracted worldwide depression. This period will be extremely difficult for everyone on the planet – socially, politically, and economically, since will be accompanied by widespread unemployment, which is certain to be exacerbated by government austerity programs meant to deal with intolerable levels of sovereign debt and the unavoidable likelihood of a collapse of the global banking system.

As the Winter season worsens, we will likely see some terrible things, the inescapable consequence of widespread unemployment and which will, in turn, lead to tremendous levels of social unrest across the entire planet. Greece is right now experiencing a small taste of this, as its government implements austerity measures and drastic cuts in expenditures, in order to stave off defaulting on the nations sovereign debts. The swelling “Occupy Movement” has all the earmarks of a global revolution, a predictable public reaction to the excesses found in the waning days of the Kondratieff Autumn, a period characterized by extraordinary speculative greed, the concomitant high levels of sovereign debt, and price bubbles — in which the price per barrel of oil skyrocketed to $140 in 2008 — as well as the socialization of the costs of failed banks and bankrupt corporations onto taxpayers. A protracted world war will also likely take place involving NATO nations, in an effort to retain their economic hegemony. This will take place as the former core nation-states make the difficult transition to peripheral and semi-peripheral status. The USA, given its tremendous military power, will probably use its power to try to retain some of its current economic and political powers, as will all the NATO countries. The almost guaranteed transition to peripheral and semi-peripheral status for the NATO countries will undoubtedly be accompanied by a great loss of life.

Once the global banking system fails — many think that will happen this month — along with the disintegration of global stock and bond markets, the existing petrodollar-based world capitalist system will simply collapse. The banks will close, until they are somehow adequately recapitalized. In order to accomplish that, the central bankers and economists will have to dream up a new global financial system, around which to organize trade relationships. Perhaps, as is suggested elsewhere, a new energy-based currency system will first emerge at the local level. Global trade will continue, but it will be drastically reduced. International demand for oil will drop drastically alongside the increase in unemployment and the decrease in trade.

Soon after the global economic crash, the demand for Rossi’s technology will simply skyrocket, even if the physics isn’t fully understood. The price of oil will decline precipitously, making expensive oil and gas projects, such as the Alberta tar sands development, economically unfeasible. The Middle East oil industry and others will continue to exist; it just won’t be as profitable. A mad scramble will certainly ensue, as the powerful nations try to gain control over Rossi’s new LENR technology. This period will mark the start of the new energy era, as the technology is rapidly deployed.

At present, the emerging economies will find LENR technology highly useful; the G8 nations not so much, until the E-Cats are making electricity. The constraints imposed by existing infrastructure likely accounts for Rossi’s focus on the larger reactors, which can be more quickly integrated into the existing system and applied to the current energy infrastructure.

The more advanced countries, or what we now call the more advanced countries, are going to be stuck with their existing energy grid/infrastructure for some time. For this reason, I doubt commercialized home E-Cats become a priority on the North American continent. AmpEnergo, Rossi’s US distributor, clearly recognizes this fact, since they’ve indicated little interest in pursuing the wide distribution of home E-Cats on this side of the ocean. They will focus on the bigger units. Europeans, however, will likely have more use for the smaller E-Cats, since it has many older buildings that can put the E-Cats to use as boilers immediately.

Given the constraints of the existing infrastructure/energy grid in the advanced countries, it will be the emerging economies, especially China and India, and the currently underdeveloped, poorer nations, such as Africa, and those nations that are not currently hindered by an existing infrastructure, which will have the better opportunity to use the smaller E-Cat heat energy more productively. Thus, these nations will experience an almost immediate increase in their standards of living. This will probably work to their advantage, cementing even further the decline of US and EU economic hegemony. Canada’s tar sands will shut down rather quickly, I suspect, since they are simply too expensive and environmentally destructive.

The Winter phase will last for a period of at least 10 years or more, before the Kondratieff Spring truly arrives. After that, things will really start improving economically on a global scale. Employment levels will have increased tremendously, and things will generally start looking pretty good for humanity. We will, of course, survive and adapt to the changes wrought by the K-Wave and the subsequent widespread application of LENR technology. Some of those changes will, initially, be quite remarkable, as this new technology works its way through the global economic system. The current E-Cat will, itself, undergo rapid improvement and spur tremendous scientific innovation, as new ways of using this technology are discovered. We will quite rapidly, in the grand scheme of things, evolve toward the new energy equilibrium. I hope I am alive to see it all take place. I only hope it has not come too late to save the Polar Regions. By the way, protect your assets: Use credit unions instead of commercial banks and buy gold and silver. We’re all in for a rocky ride in the near future.

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25 Responses to Geopolitical/Geoeconomic Change And Cold Fusion

  1. georgehants says:

    Another comment I posted somewhere but seems relevant.

    If only these blogs and articles where being published by the main line media.
    It appears that 90% of the world is living in some sort of crazy, self destructive dream.
    To digress slightly, nobody seems to look at the obvious situation where technology has been advancing almost expediently since the fifties; this of course means that far fewer people are needed to work to maintain all necessities and all reasonable luxuries for all.
    Yet instead of people celebrating every time an advance puts people put of work so that they can have more leisure or help society in general, people live in fear of this happening.
    Instead of retirement ages rising everybody should be able to retire at say 40 if they wish, or carry on as long as they like.
    Instead pointless, circular non-productive jobs are created in finance etc.
    It is all an illusion, remove all finance and reward the people who are most benefit to society.
    Of course lots of obvious problems but people are so brainwashed they actually find themselves defending the current system.
    Rossi’s E-CAT can remove millions of jobs for the benefit of all, but it will be put to the people as a problem, instead of the wonderful opportunity to get people out of work and enjoy their lives.

  2. This is an excellent site too for the global economic impacts predicted as LENR hits the global economy: http://www.scoop.it/t/rossi-s-ecat

  3. Not directly related to the E-Cat this article, entitled “Don’t Buy Into Europe’s Latest Rescue Effort – The Continent’s Banks Are About to Go Bust” is fascinating: http://moneymorning.com/2011/10/17/dont-buy-into-europes-latest-rescue-effort-the-continents-banks-are-about-to-go-bust/

    Forbes also has a speculative article about Rossi’s E-Cat: http://www.forbes.com/sites/markgibbs/2011/10/17/hello-cheap-energy-hello-brave-new-world/

    I’ve been waiting for these changes for so long, I can’t be anything but excited!

  4. Peter Roe says:

    Hey George, I’m self employed as a technical author. I work from home (or often as not from my garden during the summer). Who is going to measure my hours or grade the contribution I make?

    Admin – No problem if you think you can make something of all this unfounded speculation!

    Peter

    • ecatsite says:

      The current global economy is based on a large amount of speculation…which is why I find this whole discussion very interesting and why predictions of an economic winter should be given some credence. The foundations for cold fusion may be speculative in some respects but they are better founded overall than the current economic system. Whether it will be enough to save us from the inevitable is the question at hand and will be explored further in my next installment….excuse me OUR next installment.

    • georgehants says:

      Peter, morning, I am retired business, now stocks and shares, so I know the worth of being skeptical, also how unfair and inefficient the economic system is, it must be replaced.
      Your question —-that is for people to think about and everybody to add idea’s.
      As usual my thinking starts at the bottom of things and works away from there.
      A new system has to start somewhere, only if people agree that a system sounds viable and better will they start thinking of ways to put it in action.

  5. georgehants says:

    Peter, we may talk out of line with the vast majority but thank goodness some of us do, also great to be able to air these things quietly, free of abuse.
    Your point of growth is central, if some of the above was taken into account, remove money have a simple points system based on work for society that everybody does from 18 to say 40 but if one wished could carry on as long as one liked.
    Without money the M25 would empty overnight.
    Successful entertainers, sports persons inventors etc could still have many extra points, as one must keep incentives as reward is part of human nature, extra points awarded to people who help society more but a nurse or dustman would be recognised as important people.
    Everybody would be looking how to put people out of work not put them into false circular occupations to keep Capitalism alive.
    There is enough productivity now for everybody to have all the fair things they need, it would be fun to get many more out of work to enjoy themselves or help others.
    The only productivity needed would be true improvements to everything plus a open-minded approach for science and technology to better peoples lives and discover new things about our reality.
    As you can see I could write a book on the subject as once one starts to think in this way the ideas keep flowing. So many advantages to add and of course so many problems to get it started, but all psychological as there are no practical problems.

  6. georgehants says:

    Peter must be fair to say that economics, the weather, human behavior, etc all come under the effect of chaos theory meaning a very small change in initial conditions will have a dramatic effect on the outcome.
    Therefore every decision made can effect the future, we need to inject tolerance, understanding, care and responsibility into every aspect of life, without these calming qualities catastrophe could follow.
    To much time spent like with Rossi on crude mechanics without taking more concern of what lies behind things.
    What do most people want, take away the primeval need for security, fair freedom food and warmth which leads to a hoarding instinct then most have a good caring nature, time to recognize this and authority to supply these things to every individual to free them to exercise the good side of humanity.
    Agreed by the people, population control is the only proviso.

    • Peter Roe says:

      George, I agree that while in the mass our behaviour is governed by the essentially random events that chaos theory tries to manage. But is precisely because small changes can have large scale effects, that we as a species have the potential to change our outcomes through political (or geopolitical) management and technology such as the e-cat.

      Whether we will is of course another matter. At the heart of all this is the idiotic concept of perpetual ‘growth’ – growth of populations, growth of consumption, leading to ever increasing competition for resources. At best, Ni-H fusion may have the potential to buy as a few more decades to get ourselves sorted and find a new paradigm.

      But the real question is, how do those who think they have the answers manage those who refuse to accept any restrictions on their reproduction? Or who want a higher living standard, or decide to take if they are not given? There are indications that ‘the 1%’ have already decided how to manage the ‘surplus’ population and have plans that are already quite well advanced, but such self appointed ‘world government’ is not in your best interests, or mine. Personally I am not clear on whether the present unrest is a part of a planned course, or if the string pullers are simply not as clever as they think they are. It may be that the control of Western governments they have spent the last century building is beginning to fall apart, or it may be that things are running on rails for them.

      Either way I hope that some food remains on the supermarket shelves in the years to come.

  7. Peter Roe says:

    Like Tom B I have some difficulty in believing that even a complex mathematical model can accurately predict developments in human behaviour, except perhaps in very general terms and with extremely uncertain time frames. The type of cyclic pattern described by Kondratieff probably does reflect real sequences in relatively static systems, but I feel that there are now just too many variables for such a ‘default’ pattern to hold, even though superficially we may seem to be following such a predictable sequence at present.

    What economic models such as this seek to do is take a viewpoint so elevated that economic activity can be seen without detail, in much the same way that fluid dynamics can be used to predict not only the behaviour of fluids in a pipe for example, but can apply exactly the same ‘rules’ to the behaviour of drivers on a crowded motorway. That’s all well and good, until the pipe bursts, or a large bubble of air comes along (or the motorway equivalents).

    I would also regard the predictions of war as problematic. War has moved over the last half century from being a geopolitical instrument used by governments and dictators in persuit of personal power, to an economic tool used by shadow governments to provide opportunities for unimaginable profits, with possibly some incidental ‘benefits’ in terms of expansion of political domination and further opportunity for profit. All out war between significantly armed ‘enemies’ (i.e., possibly involving thermonuclear warfare) would be extremely damaging of profits and would incidentally destroy the lifestyles of the very rich and powerful (and probably them, as well) and thus becomes unlikely.

    We should not forget either that the current crisis is predominantly one that affects the ‘western’ capitalist nations. China and much of Asia do not seem to experiencing any profound problems (other than having to deal with ours!) and for most of the rest of the world including the BRIC nations it is pretty much business as usual.

    I can’t see any way that a model such as Kondratieff’s can contain or predict developments such as the emergence of a demi-worldwide banking/corporate attempt at usurpation of legitimate government, worldwide person to person communications systems that inform the population about how they are being manipulated, or wildcards such as the e-cat. There are probably also a number of other significant developments going on of which most of us are utterly unaware. As such I think that predictions made by such theories should serve more as a warning of what will occur if drastic changes are not made, rather than an accurate forecast of what *will* happen.

    • Peter: Thanks for your input. Kondratieff’s theory isn’t a complex “economic” model. My understanding of it is that it is a theory of behaviour of human trade activities and wholesale prices on a global level. Other theorists have expanded upon it, concretizing it as a model of human evolutionary economic behaviour writ large, and which, on a global level, predicts how each age cohort within the nation-states of the currently dominant economic core powers behave economically; youths (spring, rebirth and innovation), young adults (summer, rapid growth), autumn (adults, economic stability and drive to accumulation, combined with greed and excessive debt) and the elderly (winter, death).

      In other words, each period in the lives of each predominating generation of the *core* (* = for emphasis, because it is the behaviour of core state actors that determines how the global economic system evolves) states corresponds with certain kinds of rational (to them anyway) economic behaviours, which are difficult to discern at the local level, but which become glaringly evident when viewed from the macro level. This kind of analysis forms the basis of social science research. Humans behave very predictably and those behaviours can be measured empirically using survey research and quantitative analysis: If they did not there would be no possibility of social science research.

      As for war, it has always been exploited by politicians for the reasons I mentioned. In the past century, the causes of war were always over the control of fossil fuel energy (Middle East oil), and to overcome growing economic powers (Germany under Bismarck). I can’t see a war being fought over control of LENR technology: It’s seemingly easily replicated by everybody who knows the catalyst. Perhaps, with the advent of LENR, war will revert back to the protection of the homeland from external threats, along with the aim of controlling and dominating additional territory outside the homeland, as population increases (i.e. land hunger). Or, simply to capture and control other strategic resources contained therein. Or, maybe the powers that be will simply take their fighting into space? The new LENR technology makes it impossible to predict how global politics will unfold. There are simply too many unknowns to make predictions beyond the next 10-20 years.

  8. georgehants says:

    The current unrest around the World is good news for a peaceful revolution to change Economics to a fair system designed to reward effort for society and not the individual.

    Sojourner Soo, that is what is so crazy and unfair about raw Capitalism so many people would be happy to exchange a fair working life for total security of house, food etc. plus fair luxuries for life.
    My crazy thought is that only half the working population is necessary to produce all needs and fair luxuries, what are the other half doing, all in finance etc.
    remove all money and finance, share the necessary work, everybody retires at 45.
    Daft I know, but that’s how I see it, something is wrong if one compares productivity now to say the fifties, exponential rise but most ordinary people still working as long as ever. Crazy.
    Please don’t say Communism, I am saying what ever ism produces the right result.

  9. ecatsite says:

    I would just like to interject at this point and say that this is the kind of discussion I would like to see here at e-Catsite. I would like it to resemble a debate and not a shouting match. I understand that every discussion will not be so thoughtful and well-reasoned but that is the goal and I thank everyone for helping to foster that. I would like all readers to keep this in mind before submitting an article or posting a comment.

  10. Tom Baccei says:

    This analysis by Soo seems to be really way out there, and rather unlikely in my view. What George says makes more sense, but the critique should not be aimed at Capitalism, but rather at Economic theory. Very little advance in the basic concepts of Economics has occured since Adam Smith and “The Wealth of Nations”. One problem is the devastating requirement that growth be perpetual. Another is, as George points out, the fallacy of work as a necessity for everyone. It might have been John Bruner, the Sci Fi writer who coined the term Pursap (Purchasing Sapiens) to classify those in the future whose only JOB is to consume, thus creating a demand for the things created by the ones who work. The US economy today is facing the reality that there are not enough jobs for everyone in the face of globalization, and automation. We need a NEW economic paradigm in which production, and population are stable, growth is cyclical, and recycling, renewal have equal value to extraction and improvement. The world is not going to get any bigger, and it really doesn’t seem likely that we are going anyplace else. LENR would certainly extend the time where expansionistic economics will work. If it pans out in the best possible way, a huge amount of human expansion will be likely, into the deserts, and tundras and even into the oceans. We would possibly have a chance to reverse, or at least stop global warming, but as always happens, there will be unforseen consequences on ecology and environment. Globalization will accelerate, since the cost of shipping things from here to there will shrink. Global politics will drastically change, the most obvious way being a change in the nature of turmoil in the middle east as OPEC countries lose their source of wealth, external countries stop competing for that natural resource, and the once wealthy players in the area fight to find a new economic validity. The sudden availability of unlimited water through inexpensive desalinization will mean countries with large land are, low population will expand quickly, if they are able to defend their borders. Cities will shrink as the energy cost of being more dispersed beings irrelevant.

    So, in my opinion, if LENR pans out to the fullest possible extent, we would enter a period of rapid growth. The world stage will be much more turbulent, and unpredictable, as once useless areas become more and more productive, and older highly populated areas see a migration of their best and brightest to those areas because of the newly created opportunities there.. Old economic theory will be valid again during this expansionistic era. The loss of species diversity would accelerate, sadly. Humans will more and more take over the natural processes of environmental stability on a planetary basis. The gases in the atmosphere, the climate etc. will all be more and more within the realm of human intervention. A time of great opportunity, and also of great danger for the species.

    • Tome: I appreciate your comments, as I do all the other comments. Kondratiev’s theory is the only theory to accurate predict global recessions so far. The time span of each cycle changes over the course of history, I think, simply because the human life cycle has grown longer. The theory is, after all, intrinsically connected to human behaviour on a macro level. Evolutionary economics is becoming quite popular these days, I’ve heard. I’ve run the scenario I portrayed to a teaching economist and several traders. They all agree with it, in principle. In fact, their predictions are almost scarier than mine are. Your comments about the future are easily accommodated by the theory and, if you notice, don’t really deviate much from my own. The Kondratiev Winter, according to Wallerstein, has already started, in 2008.

      What worries me most is how the USA and NATO will respond to the emerging economic BRIC powers. The global warfare scenario I expect, arises simply because that is how hegemonic powers and the US military industrial complex generally responds to threats against their hegemony. I believe the next war will start in Iran, simply because it’s long been planned as part of the PNAC agenda and the US DoD. War, as you know, is good for the economy, good for increasing the popularity of politicians, and especially good for distracting populations from internal difficulties, by focusing their attention onto an external “enemy.” In doing so, it also creates social cohesion against “the other.” I hope I’m wrong, too. That said, I have tremendous immense hope for the future. We can start a new page in history. It is an exciting time to be alive.

  11. georgehants says:

    As half the workforce can easily produce everything needed it may one day become clear that the Capitalist way of creating an illusion that everybody must work and struggle, will be recognized for what it is.
    A conspiracy for inequality of effort verses return.
    Every technological advance, Rossi’s E-Cat included, obviously means less work and more time to enjoy life and help others, but Capitalism dictates that one should fear unemployment, and not as it should be, celebrate it.
    It does not have to be Capitalism versus Communism or any other “ism” but the best of any system that produces the best result for all and not just a select group of inheritors and manipulators.

  12. georgehants says:

    Ben Saturday always quiet, but do not expect miracles there are many other sites on Cold Fusion, some very high quality such as Cold Fusion Now but they receive very little traffic.
    Give it some time, these sites are like a successful pub, for some reason people gravitate to one and it becomes popular, very hard to put one’s finger on exactly why.
    Success in life is trying to achieve things of a positive nature and not getting pleasure out of a destructive way of life.

  13. timycelyn says:

    An interesting and thoughtful piece, which certainly has the power to worry more than a little. No disrespect, Soo, but I am hoping that these K-wave predictions are disrupted by other events. Indeed the injection of E-cat technology really just throws all the gaming pieces up in the air, and if the K-wave describes a natural steady state cycle, then a sufficiently large disrupting force must presumably overwhelm that pattern. I certainly do not fancy living through the winter!

    Ben: I don’t know if I am using the site wrongly, but all the comment has disappeared this morning. Am I doing something dumb (in which case some instruction on the header might be cool) or is there a glitch on the site?

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